Background. It all started with the formation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), simply known as the Convention. On March 21, 1994, 197 countries ratified the Convention with the aim of preventing dangerous human interference with the earth’s climate system. This was the first recognition of the climate problem by all nations of the world. Kyoto protocol, adopted in 1997, operationalized the Convention and put the onus for combating climate change on developed or industrialized nations. 37 nations in total had binding targets, which was based on the recognition that most of the greenhouse gases (GHG) added to the earth’s atmosphere in the last 150 years came from activities of the industrialized nations. Kyoto came into force in 2005 with the first commitment period of 2008-2012 and the goal to reduce emissions to 5% below 1990 levels (Annex B). Some nations succeeded in doing so, but US never ratified the Kyoto protocol. Under Doha Amendment to Kyoto, these 37 nations further committed to reduce emissions by 18% below 1990 levels in the second period (initially slated to be 2013-2020). However, Doha will come into force in early 2021, as it needed to be ratified by 144 Parties to Kyoto to come into effect, which was only received in Oct 2020. Canada withdrew from Kyoto in the second period.
Paris Agreement. In Dec 2015, at COP 21 (21st Conference of Parties),197 Parties of the UNFCCC reached a landmark agreement, now known as the Paris agreement, to combat climate change aggressively by accelerating the actions and investments needed for a low carbon future. This is the first time that all nations committed to an ambitious effort to combat climate change and to adapt to its effects. A special provision was made to provide financial assistance to developing countries to help them achieve their targets. It entered into force on Nov 4, 2016 when 55 countries accounting for at least 55% of global emissions, referred to as the ‘double threshold’, had signed the agreement. 187 states and the EU have since ratified the agreement. Unfortunately, the US withdrew from Paris in 2019. The new US administration has promised to rejoin the Paris accord soon after it takes office on January 20, 2021.
For further reading: https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement
What are the goals of the Paris Agreement?
1. A global response to keep the temperature rise well below 2°C above the preindustrial levels (1700s) by the end of this century, but preferably to below1.5°C, by reducing GHG emissions.
2. Increase the ability of developing countries to deal with climate change mitigation and adaptation, achieved by mobilization and provision of finances, a new technology framework, and enhanced capacity-building.
See nrdc.org (Paris Climate Agreement: Everything you need to Know)
3. All Parties will put forward their best efforts (Nationally-determined contributions) and will strengthen these efforts in years ahead.
See www.nrdc.org/experts/jake-schmidt/paris-cliamte-agreement-explained-what-actions-did-countries-commit-implement for complete summary.
What needs to happen?
To achieve the goals of the Paris agreement, we need to reduce global emissions by half by 2030 and to net-zero by 2050. Net-zero implies the amount of carbon released into the atmosphere will be the same as is absorbed by forests or oceans or by sequestration.
Unfortunately, however, 75% of the pledges are too low and will in fact result in increased emissions by 2030, for example China and India. Russia and US are currently not included in the agreement. EU is the only entity on target. If this continues, we are on a path to 3-4°C increase in temperature by the end of the century. This will trigger natural feedbacks, such as massive thawing of permafrost and widespread forest die-offs, leading to additional uncontrollable warming. We can also expect Hothouse Earth scenario, with sea levels rising by 30-200 feet (10-60 meters). (National Geographic, Nov 5, 2019).
Why is 2030 a crucial target date?
By 2030, the temperature will increase by 1.5°C from preindustrial levels if targets are not met. This will cost the world at least $2 billion dollars a day in economic losses from further worsening of weather events, according to “Truth Behind the Paris Agreement Climate Pledges” report (Universal Ecological Fund).
Countries need to take very large steps to reach net-zero by 2050, which includes shutting down 2400 coal plants and replacing them with renewables by 2030. But 250 new coal plants are currently under construction around the world.
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